Smart Watch Market: Apple iWatch Approaches, But Samsung Leads

As the dust settles around Apple‘s (AAPL) iWatch announcement from this week about availability and pricing, we took a quick look at the numbers around Apple’s new product, as well as the distribution plans.

Plus, we’ve got a forecast for sales and a quick chart about who currently leads the smart watch market.

Pricing and ship dates

Apple iWatch prices start at $349 and go all the way up to $17,000 for the 18 carat gold version that is most loaded with options. Pre-orders will be accepted starting on April 10 and shipping begins on April 24.

Distribution

Apple plans a limited early distribution in Apple stores and selected department stores. The initial distribution plan skips more traditional retail partners such as Best Buy. That is Apple retail stores today only account for an estimated 20 percent of Apple’s total sales (and none of its channel inventory, which can contribute meaningfully to a launch product’s volumes), according to Toni Sacconaghi, Jr., a senior analyst at Bernstein Research.

He noted that Apple also said that  “by design, the shopping experience for Apple Watch will be the most personalized Apple has ever offered.” Sacconaghi said it remains unclear whether Apple ever broaden distribution for iWatch.

Sales forecast for 2015 and 2016

Sacconaghi and Bernstein are forecasting initial sales of 7.5 million units in the second half of fiscal 2015 and 20 million units in fiscal 2016. The device’s short battery life and lack of independent wireless connection (that doesn’t require a nearby iPhone for full functionality) will limit adoption, Sacconaghi said.

“We are not sure how compelling incremental use cases are for the Watch, especially since most functions/apps are likely to run just as well or better on an iPhone, which needs to be in close proximity to the Watch,” he said.

Meanwhile, the company for Apple to beat in the smartwatch market is Samsung, which leads the pack by a mile between its Gear, Gear 2, Gear 3, Gear S and Fit. Here are the most recent numbers.
You will find more statistics at Statista