Canalys: Strong 2025 IT Spending Expected

The tech industry is poised for strong growth in 2025, with IT spending increasing 8% and partner-delivered IT growing 7.1%.

Partner-delivered IT will account for 70% of overall IT spending. However, that's down from 71% in 2024 and 73% in 2023.

That’s according to Canalys’ November IT Opportunity update. It predicts global IT spending will reach $5.44 trillion in 2025. IT spending should increase 7.7% this year, marking the strongest growth rate since the post-COVID technology boom of 2021.

“The results of the 2024 global elections super-cycle have brought about a new period of political uncertainty in every region,” Canalys said. “While the decisive outcome of the U.S. presidential election has boosted financial markets in the short term, rising geopolitical tensions and a potential escalation in trade disputes could dampen growth prospects in 2025. However, IT spending and gross domestic product (GDP) growth are currently forecasted to diverge again next year, as investment in enabling, embedding and operationalizing AI accelerates.”

Who Will Lead 2025 IT Spending

North America will lead global IT spending in 2025, accounting for 40% of the global total. The threat of higher tariffs on technology imports should boost spending in the short term as projects are accelerated to avoid higher costs. It could also speed up AI and data center investments in the United States.

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Uncertainty will rise in Latin America as concerns mount over rising public debt in Brazil. That’s driven by social spending and trade disruption between Mexico and the United States.  

IT spending per employee in Asia Pacific will remain below the global average in 2025, despite strong growth in India, and growing demand in Mainland China and Japan. Growth in EMEA will stall, especially in Western Europe, due to ongoing economic and political headwinds, as well as the threat of conflicts escalating further.

Investment in AI-powered software, cybersecurity and AI-capable PCs will drive strong technology growth in 2025, according to Canalys. However, the surge in AI infrastructure growth will lessen, particularly by hyperscalers after their increase in server spending this year. However, their spending will remain elevated.

The shift in focus from operational efficiencies, to longer-term strategic challenges and embedding AI across all business functions will drive IT services growth to 10.7%. Spending on telecom services will increase 3.7%.

The return on 5G investments will continue to weigh on service providers. However, the emergence of 5G-advanced and deployment of AI-driven operations will unlock new service opportunities going forward.

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Partner-Delivered IT

While partner-delivered IT will grow at a slower pace than the overall market in 2025, partners will continue to play a vital role in influencing IT spending decisions across all regions, according to Canalys. Spending in key hardware categories should increase for partners. That includes PCs, networking, storage and servers. However, these will remain cyclical, driven by installed base refreshes and upgrades. 

Cybersecurity, software and managed IT services will remain long-term growth engines for the channel. Partners that are already heavily invested in these areas will maintain their growth trajectory.

Partners missed out on the initial AI boom, with data center infrastructure build-outs going directly to ODM vendors, according to Canalys. However, the next phase of investment in edge, secure AI adoption and business transformation will create continued growth opportunities for partners over the next decade.